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Q&A #80 What Causes a Watch Market BUBBLE? + What’s the Best Time of Year to Buy Watches?

Q&A #80 What Causes a Watch Market BUBBLE? + What’s the Best Time of Year to Buy Watches?


Hey guys! It’s Q&A Tuesday. Today I’m gonna start with just reading
off a comment from Marcus Vinicius. He’s been a longtime follower of my any
comments and every one of my videos. Shoutout to you Marcus for doing that, I
appreciate it. He basically ran through his top 10 AP’s and I figured it’d be interesting to you guys to see you know what some of my viewers rate their top 10 AP’s for sale right? You guys remember the video that I did where I did my top 10 AP’s? Maybe Ian you can pop 10 of them on the screen. And now let’s talk about what Marcus said. Marcus says his 10 AP collection well he says, “First of all great episode.” Thanks Marcus. “And great questions from Russ Johnson
makes me want to do my own top 10 AP collection. So, 1. Royal Oak Grande Complication 26552bc 2. AP Chrono Blue dial with the blue
crocodile strap 26331OR 3. AP 5402st that would be my AP the A serial 4. Royal Oak double balanced wheel openwork 15407st 5. Royal Oak Offshore Tourbillon Chronograph 26421OR(It’s too big for me but it’s amazing) I feel your pain brother. 6. Millinery 4101 ref 15350st Efficient those somebodies. I know these references numbers off the top of my head is kind of scary sometimes 7. Royal Oak Tourbillon extra thin black ceramic 26522ce 8. Royal Oak Perpetual calendar 26574st 9. Jules Audemars equation of time this 26003or So you like the rose gold version. and 10. Royal Oak Chronograph 26320st So, I just wanted to throw that little bit of information out there and guys feel free to tell me these things. I mean it’s actually interesting for me to hear and for this becoming more of a 2 way street rather than just me blabbing about watches and my top tens and so on. So, Marcus thanks for hanging out with me all this time your comments do not go unnoticed and I just wanted to put that out there for the world to see. Next question comes from James Robinson it’s a good question, “Roman great collaboration with watchbox the other day!” Thank you very much! I actually had a lot of fun with those guys, got a lot of tips in regards to setting up the new studio that I mentioned in one of my previous episodes by looking at theirs, which was awesome. Made me want to do these live on YouTube as well. So, next year would be some live feeds coming your way. “I have a AP question for you as I know they are your favorite, mine too. So can you see my dilemma. I have narrowed my purchase to 3 different watches. Currently I have a Batman and trying to decide if I want to keep a trade up. Option 1. Keep Batman and buy navy dial white face offshore, trade Batman and add more money for either the Juan Pablo Montoya or the new AP ghost offshore. Your thoughts? So, hard because I love them all. I have tried them on and I can pull the Montoya off even though it’s larger than the others. Thanks and Happy Holidays! Okay so, multi-part question, here’s a multi-part answer. No.1 Let’s talk about you trading up your Batman regardless of what you decide to buy. I spoke to you guys about taking profits
on watches. 9 out of 10 times when you go to resell a watch or trade a watch and mind you there’s no difference when you’re trading a watch in or selling a watch it’s the same thing. ‘Cause essentially at a trade you’re selling you’re watch and you buying something else right? I’ve talked to you guys about taking profits on watches, right now is that time where you can take a profit on the Batman. If you bought this thing at retail and that means you did really, really well and you can make yourself 40% on your watch give or take right? Depending on its condition hopefully you still have the box and papers. So, I’m a big fan of doing that because nothing lasts forever sort of thing and even if the prices do stay up overtime that investment or that return on investment still doesn’t make any financial sense. So, I’m a big fan of taking profits on your watches right? And the Batman is one of those good watches to take a profit on right now, regardless of whether you decide to buy a less expensive watch or more expensive watch. Jump back to the end of your question, I can pull the Montoya even though it’s larger than the others. It’s not the Montoya is actually exactly the same size as the other. They measure in at 42mm, in reality they wear as a 44mm but they’re all, all the watch’s dimensions are actually 42mm. So, no size difference there. And last but not least, that Navy dial white faced Offshore. So, you’re talking about the original Navy
I’m assuming. The one that has the white dial with the blue sub dials or AP ghost offshore. So, the AP ghost offshore this is a very recent watch just came out supposedly boutique only, although I know dealers are getting them as well right now it’s trading through the roof. So, you’re gonna be paying top, top dollar for that watch. If you like the ghost I tell you to wait, if you want to go for the Navy you can get a nice crisp pre owned Navy out there in the mid-teens which would make it a great deal. Whether or not you sell the Batman makes
no difference. Of course if I had to choose the three I would go with the Montoya. And the reason I would go with the Montoya is because that is sentimental to me. I talk to you guys in the past how I somewhat created that limited-edition offshore market going back about 10 years. Montoya was the very watch that I did it with I saw that watch go from $14,000 all the way up to $35,000 and right now that watch is trading back down at about $25,000 price range. Which I think makes it a smoking deal, it’s a good looking watch there’s no watch out there like it. It’s unmistakably an AP Montoya doesn’t look like any other AP offshore. Those were the two top Offshore that were trading at the time. It was the Montoya and the Barrichello was the constant fight, Barrichello was trading slightly more because it came out later the retails were higher and mark is already proven itself unlimited Offshore’s. And think about it, a watched that original retail for $14,700 is still at $25,000. Certainly a hell of a purchase. So, out of the three I would definitely go with the Montoya. Hope that answers your questions, Happy Holidays to you! And last but not least guys, I love these type of questions so, don’t be afraid to ask me these things. I mean I don’t get to them as fast. So, sometimes it’s a matter of look I really need this answer right away And you may have already bought a watch or something but I still love these type of questions. Because these are, I shouldn’t say real questions but these are real life scenarios where you actually have a dilemma and I would be happy to answer those dilemmas for you. Let me know how everything works out
and of course if we can help give us a call. Next question from Yeti and I’ve answered your question before and you’re stumping me here with the word I’m an immigrant let’s see, “Hey Roman do you think the types of idiosyncrasies, idiosyncrasies found in older Rolex model will disappear now that production methods, materials and quality or more consistent? What will collectors in 50 plus years time to look for to separate the current 6 digit models?” Well, let’s start with looking up the word idiosyncrasies. A mode behavior or way of thought peculiar to an individual. A distinctive or peculiar feature or characteristic of a place or a thing. Okay. That’s a very fancy word, I couldn’t spell it if you paid me but it’s written right? But in either case, I think what you’re referring to and correct me if I’m wrong. It’s the little tiny details, the little tiny differences especially when it comes to older Rolex’s with slight differences in dials, slight difference in differences in hands, different finishes on the markers right? The different type of looms, different bracelets different end links and things of that nature. What you’re saying now is that Rolex have become a bit more consistent when it comes to that. But are they really? is a better question. Of course if you look at something like the Daytona not a whole lot of variations that, if you’re talking about the stainless steel pieces right? white dial, black dial. But then you start getting into some of the precious metal pieces right ? And that’s when you see a lot of differences in the dial. This is when you also see differences in the strap right? Rubber straps versus bracelet right? Although the bracelets are pretty consistent. Jubilee bracelets they’re pretty consistent throughout the model. So, I see what you’re trying to say with using the big word iddy ,idiosyncrasies right? There’s just not as many intricate details in current lineups, a lot of the stuff tends to stay a lot more consistent as far as dials are concerned. So, if you take a Sky Deller it’s just a variation in the differences there’s no different markings on the Sky Dweller. You know you can look at the Submariner right? You can look at the the Deep Seas with a different dials, you can look at the most recent one, the most recent Sea Dweller with the
red markings on the dial. So, I think that in 50 years from now and hopefully we’re all still around to talk about this and so my I would be almost 95 in 50 years right? I think in that 50 years Rolex will still come out with such a variety of pieces even though sticking to the same models, that 50 years worth of this tiny little difference would may not seem as much today in a 6 digit models will certainly have these slight little variations collected over the 50 years time. Rolex wouldn’t be Rolex if they didn’t do that. You know we’re gonna see some new materials for bezels, we’re gonna see some new materials for
dials, we’re gonna see some new luminescent materials for some of these things we’re gonna need to see some your straps, we’re gonna see variations and embraces it. 50 years is a long time, if I went back 50 years pre 6 digit models you can certainly come up with a slew of
variation and I don’t think that in 50 years time there’ll be any less idiosyncrasies when it comes to Rolex. Hope that’s somewhat answers your
question. Next question comes from a new follower
Joseph Espinosa, “Roman I found you channel after you were a Producer Michael’s Channel. I’ve been binge watching your videos ever since.” Thank you and welcome. “I love all your content and information. I hope you don’t change your format too much as I really enjoyed the “What’s on my desk” keep up all the great
videos. I do also have a question, I was wondering about JLC. I understand they’re known as the watchmakers watchmaker however I feel that they don’t get enough love on several channels that I watch. You mentioned them here and there but never really have them on your desk. Are they still consider a powerhouse in a watchmaking? Is JLC not as hot in the market because they specialize more in dress watches also a general market question, as with any market that goes up and down, is there better time a year to purchase a watch? I heard Federico talk about having a slower summer in your video together. Is a summer typically slow or are you just noticing a slowdown in general? Cheers!” Well Joseph, let’s talk about JLC. Yes, they are the watchmakers, watchmaker because of the amount of movements they manufacture for others not just themselves. Because they’re a movement manufacturer they’re also tend to make a lot of their own watches and they’re not just a dressy watch, there’s plenty of sporty watches that they make out there right? And I have had plenty of JLC’s on my desk in fact on the last episode I did, I had a Reverso on. I also did a history of Reverso, I have showed off vintage Reverso’s, I’ve shown off the Jaeger-LeCoultre Master minute repeater say that fast five times right? So, I do stop quite a few Jeager’s the massive compressor line I absolutely love that’s their sporty line. and I love it from the old gold pieces on the gold bracelets to the stuff with the rubber straps and the Navy SEAL stuff I think is also absolutely great. As far as I’m not getting the love it’s just a question of popularity of the brand at the very moment, Panerai’s not getting much love right now but 10 years ago you can keep a Panerai stock nor could you buy enough Panerai’s for your stock right? They’re all sort of goes and waves. And you look at other channels, especially if you look at a channel of guys that do not sell watches ’cause it’s not their business like mine. My channel is not to push watches your way, my channel really does one thing and one thing only for us as a company and that’s brand recognition, putting a face behind the brand, someone that I’d like to believe knows what the hell they’re talking about most of the time. Because I do make mistakes from time to time but it’s it’s a question of, what do you want to talk about? And I may have touched upon this subject in the past where I talked about Instagram right? I said, okay well if you are scrolling through Instagram right? And you look at some of the watches, what gets the most likes today? Richard Mille, Rolex, AP specific models, Patek Phillipe and I should say model is for the most part right? If I’m somebody that’s running an Instagram page or Youtube channel for that matter I’m gonna all day every day talk about stuff
that’s most populous, to stuff that people are searching for, stuff that people are looking to see all the time. And I’m gonna go with the most popular, hence you’re gonna see much less Jaeger and Panerai in today’s episodes on YouTube channels across the board versus let’s say that of Richard Mille Batman
versus Hulk on the on Rolex’s. I mean, look at some of the most viewed videos online. You know Omega this versus Rolex this, you know, Tudor this versus Rolex that, Rolex this versus Rolex that or this Richard Mille or that Richard Mille and so on and so forth right? And the reason for that is because those are the videos that get the most amount of views, the most amount of clicks and people that are on YouTube that are not in the business of watches are in the business of YouTube and making money off of Youtube. They get the clicks, they get the views, they get the revenue, the ad revenue that YouTube pays them right? Absolutely nothing wrong with that right? And that’s why you’ve seen less Jaeger-LeCoultre as you’ve seen less Piaget. Now, flip it to me who somebody is in the business. If I, if I hold a thousand pieces of stock at any given time let’s say, How many of those pieces are going to be Jeager’s and Panera’s and Piaget’s versus AP, Richard Mille and Rolex. The answer is pretty obvious, whatever sells the most is what I’m gonna have most of in stock and it’s just based on today’s market and because I do this randomly where I pick watches that come across my desk or I pick watches that all go down as safe, if I have some sort of a theme and I’ll pick a few watches that’s why you’ll see a lot more AP’s on my episodes, you’ll see a lot more Rolex’s or my episodes, you’ll see a lot of Richard Mille’s on my episodes and not because it’s popular, ’cause
this is what I just happen to haven’t stopped, because that’s what’s selling at the moment. So, hope that sort of explains it. But at the end of the day if you’re looking at channels like mine somebody who’s in the business and Federico as well Federico is gonna talk about things that he has in stock obviously and those things are gonna be the more popular things. Because nobody in their right mind today is gonna want to stock a hundred Jaeger-LeCoultre. I may have about ten in stock at any given time but you won’t see my stock though over there at any given time. But if you go back 6, 7 years when the master compressor line was really really popular I had about 20 or 30 of them at stock because they were selling and they were selling fast. Same with Panerai and some of the other brands. As far as better time of year, there is no better time of year to buy a watch. It’s, it’s really a question of timing. Doesn’t matter how big of a dealer one may be, how small of a dealer one might be and every single one of my fellow dealers that are watches will attest to the fact that there’s never enough money in our business right? We’re always broke, of course I don’t mean that literally but I mean that there’s never enough money in our business. Because we’re not a business that goes out and says ok I am selling socks. So, I’m selling a certain product that’s refillable, reorderble. And let’s say I hold a hundred different SKU’s of a hundred different things and stocks that I can always reorder any given time where the price is constant and I know my demand and and so on and so forth. Watch business is different you know, things change, trends change for me it’s not as easy as picking up the phone say, “Oh you know what I’d like to have 20 Richard Mille’s in stock tomorrow, here’s a check now.” I have to go out, to have to source I had to find them. Same thing goes for Nautilus’s and Rolex’s and things of that nature right? Majority the pre-owned stuff of stuff that I get in the trades right? from you guys, from my clients. So, it’s not like I can get out there and order specific pre-owned watch right? But why is there never enough money? Because there’s no rhyme or reason and how things get bought. At any given time my phone can ring and somebody in the other line is gonna say, “Hey Roman I got a great deal of Rolex package just for you for $300,000.” Well did Roman plan to spend $300,000
today? No! Roman just paid a bunch of big bills but Roman must buy this stuff. Even either you have a lot of fun sitting the bank which makes no sense because you want to have your money in inventory or there’s no there’s a shortage because you overbought and not by choice but by the nature of the beast. Which brings me to an answer to you, often times you may just get a lucky when it comes to timing and that is by going to a dealer that has a particular watch you want and if it just so happens that that dealer had that watch in stock
for a while had bad luck were it can’t sell it or he needs money to purchase something else at the moment, he’ll come off of it at a great price for you and you can always find a smoking deal. But if at the same token you call that same
dealer and he just bought this watch and he was to make a regular profit on it, he’s not really looking to recuperate the funds out of that quickly because he has other funds available to buy other things. Then by all means you know you’re gonna pay a regular price. Summertime in general is that a little bit slower it’s slower for us from the wholesale and the thing is ’cause there’s really not a lot of trade shows during the summer. We have one major trade show in Hong Kong in June, which is a slower show because it is summer. So, generally summer yes is a little bit slower towards the end of summer it peaks back up especially on a wholesale and the thing is ’cause people get prepared for the holiday season, when stuff starts to fly off the shelves as its doing this Christmas. But if you’re gonna call me in the summer and you think you’ll get a better price in a particular item, it has nothing to do with timing of the season, it has to do with the timing of how long I may have had a particular watch in stock, what do I have going on this week in terms of funds and especially when you’re talking about heavy-duty pieces a hundred thousand up. We’re always motivated to move those once we’ve had on the stock for a while it’s you know return on investment over time kind of thing. Hope this sheds a little bit of light into what you asked me. It’s a good one from Jimmy Salo, “I’ve been wondering, recently checked out your video about the Hong Kong show if I understood correctly you sometimes buy watches there and sell them instantly at the show? Are the customers they’re only dealers and consumers are both? And to the point of wonderment: do you come across the same watch twice? I mean a watch sold to you you sold to someone and they decided to sell it to the next guy and then and that guy and so on and so forth Of course every selling used to make a profit on what they buy. I would imagine this kind of a thing, if it happens inflates the price increase a small bubble, don’t you think? Great questions Jimmy. Honestly well, yes, there are times where I’m at a trade show I buy something I sell it right there and then that happens all the time. Do I come across same twice watch twice? Yes, have my same watch has been offered
back to me absolutely. I’ll give you a couple of scenarios where I have sold a watch to a dealer for let’s say $10,000. He then resold that watch to somebody for $11,000 and the other guy came back to me and offered the same watch to me and I offered him 9 and I bought it. Something’s fishy right? Absolutely not. A lot of times that our trades that are involved with these transactions. So, if I sold this watch to this particular client for $10,000 you thought it was a good deal, you thought it can make a grand on it and he went and let’s say sold the, sold to this gentleman for 11 but he didn’t just sell to him he gave him that watch bought something else from him and that guy gave him $11,000 in trade while sell him another watch. while the watch the other guy he may have sold him he could have own right or sold it really, really well to the other
guy, hence he took that watch it in trade for 11 and then he came to me and he just wanted to cash out a deals he sold him back to me for a 9 and I’m back to the drawing board selling that same watch for 10. Nothing wrong with that, no bubble created. Where bubble is created or a small bubble is created is usually when watch go from dealer to dealer to dealer to dealer and the price increases every single time. And I’ve seen that happen numerous times, I’ve seen it happen I’m seeing some of that stuff happening right now where watches are being sold from dealer to dealer for tremendous prices but they’re not landing on people’s wrists and that’s where the small bubble gets created It’s part of the issue in the b2b industry that we have today or the secondary market as I often like to call it. That’s when you’re gonna see you know signs of a bubble when these watches continue going up in prices and it’s sort of faith you know I looked at some of my dealer chats 3 or 4
months ago when Nautilus’ were seemingly climbing by the hour. One week I saw gold Nautilus trading at 150 and 2 weeks later I saw trading as high
as 180 and dealers are buying it among themselves and I’m sitting there wondering is any of these watches actually landing on people’s wrist? For the most part a lot of them still do because a lot of these dealers in the industry today they buy these things on call especially speculative pieces right? Pieces that are seemingly going up in value all the time or trading a double-dare value and things of that nature. Because any smart dealer would be afraid to stock a rose gold Nautilus at the hype where it was at 185, 190, else likely they bought it and put it on someone’s wrist if somebody really really wanted one of they would willing pay all the money. But there are some dealers out that they pay top dollar just to have stock right? There’s dealers out there that will have all nothing but hottest latest on the greatest Richard Mille’s, Nautilus’ today, Royal Oak’s and things of that nature. They pay top dollar for them but they also charge top dollar for them. So, on a flip end the things they really attract the retail clients out there that are willing to pay anything for watch just to have them and at the same token for dealers they know that look if I need one of those watches I thought this guy will have it. Yes, this price is gonna be terrible but he will have it because this is what he does. I used to follow that business model back in the day especially with limited Offshore’s and let me tell you at the end of the day it doesn’t pay to have all the hottest and latest and the greatest and only that in stock and the reason for that is because your margins dribble down to absolutely nothing. You end up selling $100,000 watch and making $2,000 which is really not acceptable on that type of transaction considering all the risk involved and the amount money you have to put into that stock. And then what I’ve also seen as far as watches coming back because I’ve seen watches come back from retail clients. Watches that I’ve sold to a retail client that
he then went and traded somewhere else and went to another dealer another dealer or however many deals in between or maybe just one and then all of a sudden I come across that watch at a trade show. I buy, my inventory people gotta put it in the system like, “Oh! we had this watch before.” and sometimes I’ve had a watch come back twice or three times over with this. ‘Cause everything is entered by serial number so you can see like, “Oh wait a minute I sold this watch to this guy and, and then this watch came back and I sold
it again and I’m here it is back again. And what’s funny to see is the pricing differential some of the watches the pricing differential could be $10,000 when I what I originally paid for the watch 10 years ago versus what it was today or vice versa it’s it’s actually pretty funny to see those records So, when that happens it’s pretty entertaining at that. So, hope I somewhat answer your questions. Next question from freakincrazy6932 , “Roman I love the channel. I would call your new show as Sharfs watch weekly or watch news weekly.” I asked you, I’ve reached out to you guys and I asked you about some ideas I wanted to retire it what’s on my desk. While not retired the concept behind showing you watches and you know talk more about industry news maybe what has happened on a wholesale and the thing is retelling the things and you guys came up with some kickass idea and here’s one right now, Sharfs watch weekly or watch news weekly. Another one of my viewers came out with
the Sharfs report which I really like. I mean in either case keep commenting
below let me know some ideas for names of these shows or maybe I’ll just put one out and you guys can help me name it that way. “I had a question about pertaining to the watch market. If situation in Hong Kong does not improve in the next 6 months to a year. Do you see that that will force market value
overall down? With news that Rolex finally releasing more watches to the market, in combination with a potential market downturn in Asia? Will we see good deals in the next year? If so, which Rolex would be best bang for your buck that might hold value or even appreciate in years to come. Appreciate the channel and the help and attention. Hong Kong has been on the tip of my tongue over the last few months and not just me every other dealer out in the industry because the last three shows that we did in Hong Kong that we saw a decline. I think the last Hong Kong show we saw a 30% decline in sales over the last year’s show. Again, due to what’s happening in Hong Kong as you mentioned. If things don’t improve in Hong Kong you have to look at it a bit differently, when I discuss things like Russia going on there a little bit former Soviet republics and things that nature. How that affected Breguet and Ulysse Nardin and the watch market overall? It’s, the answer is pretty obvious is within your question when you got a humongous market like Hong Kong. You would think Hong Kong okay it’s not that huge in comparison to the rest of the world but it is, it’s a huge hub, I mean I need dealers from every corner of Asia that come to Hong Kong to purchase watches and jewelry right? When that big humongous hub takes a big humongous hit, the watch industry will take a hit and that’s just the bottom line. The amount of stock that’s in Hong Kong right now it’s, if you guys have never been there and you just go there and just walk the streets and you literally see every other doors are watched or a jewelry store. You’ll be amazed how much stuff is there and don’t get me started with Macau, Macau I mean you literally have blocks which is one store after another after another has millions and millions and millions of dollars in inventory In Macau, it’s crazy how much stuff is there. So, when things stop selling their prices will come down because eventually these dealers will
not be able to sustain inventories that they have and they’re gonna have to start cashing out of some of the stuff at a loss of prices will come down. Whether or not that’s gonna happen I don’t know I do have a crystal ball now, thanks to Ian and but might as well might as well bring in right? I do have a crystal ball Thanks to Ian, but my crystal ball is drawing a blank in regards to what’s going to happen next year in Hong Kong. I’m hoping that everyone will settle their differences there and really not for the sake of the market but for the sake of the people. I think Hong Kong is a great place I would hate to see it go down in fire and flames and, and along with all the violence and everything else they came along with these rights recently. As far with news at Rolex finally releasing more watches into the market where that news come from? I don’t
know where that news come from. I certainly don’t believe that Rolex would
go out there and finally announced and publicly announced that unless I absolutely miss something. But I tend not to believe hearsay things I always said the same thing anybody out there that tells you, “Well they’re only producing so many these watches this year and next year it’s gonna be only so many of these and now they’re bumping a production on this.” If anybody that tells me that I know they’re lying because nobody really releases that type of information certainly the manufacturers do not. And if which Rolex would be the best bang for your buck that might hold value even appreciate in years to come? My glass ball will tell you one thing, that in general Rolex is the one brand
that tends to hold the value over time. How much time and the timing of when you want to buy and sell is what’s important. Because most people when the market is
high will never sell their Rolex because they see going up on value hourly, daily or weekly or yearly which doesn’t really matter and usually people tend to sell their luxury goods when they need the money right? Not, not a whole lot of consumers out there sell their watches when they go through the roof in terms of value, they like the fact that they bought on all of us at retail. Now it’s trading at double its retail value and they’re happy wearing it and it makes you even more happier when that happens. So, you know if you’re out there looking to buy Rolex pretty much any Rolex out there today is a safe bet long term. Whether you, whether not you choose to sell it when it goes through the roof and when it goes up on value that’s really up to you. Hope that answers your question. I’m gonna finish off with a good question and comment from Farhan Mashud. “Great video as always!” Thank you. “I have 2 questions: Why is the Yachtmaster 1 less desirable than Subs and GMTs? 2. Where I’m from, they have Hulk, Pepsi, Batgirl and Daytona’s on display. You can try it on but it’s not for sale. When I asked why not, sales people would say the watches belong to Rolex and will be returned to Rolex. Reason for displays so that people can try it on, so that they it won’t be disappointed walking in a Rolex shop and not see the sports models. What’s your take on this?” Can I go with the second question first here and called bullshit, If a dealer has a Rolex on display that means that’s part of his stock and it means it is for sale what they’re not telling is that they’re holding out those pieces for those that go out there look perhaps wanna buy more expensive watch and alongside with it they’ll throw it give me a like a Pepsi, like a GMT or a Batgirl or a Daytona. I guarantee you tomorrow as an experienced walk into that store and say look guys I want to buy a diamond bezel President. Well, I want to buy a Breguet bezel Pearl Master in platinum you know watches that are 60, 70, 80, $100,000. But if you guys gonna sell me that also want a Daytona, they will gladly sell you that Daytona right off that display you’ll see how quickly they’ll take it off and you’ll see how quickly they’ll sell you that watch alongside with the expensive watch. If you are customers of theirs for years and if every single year you spend a significant amount of money with that dealer I guarantee you those guys also get their choice in any one of these watches. I’m a little surprised they actually put them on display right? Because normally they hide these watches
in the back and they sort of pull them out for those special clients. Again, just as an experience I’d be curious for you to go into that store and do just that, look guys I want to buy this $85,000 Rolex but along with it I’m want a Batman to give as a gift to my nephew or something like that. I guarantee you they’ll sell it to you. As far as Yachtmaster 1 less desirable than subs and GMT’s. With Rolex’s it seems to me over the years
and again this is just my opinion that if it’s not hot right out of the gate it
doesn’t stay hot. At the time the Yachtmaster 1 came out that wasn’t that crazy crazy on stainless steel Rolex’s right? I think at the time Yachtmaster 1 came out the the craze was on I’m gonna say Day Dates. Probably was around that time right? Of course along with some of the more vintage stuff like vintage Daytona’s and things like that although they weren’t fetching that kind of money as they are today. But if you’re not hot out the door it’s very
hard to become hot later and because the general public opinion, the minute they see those watches out there discounting and the minute they see them reselling
not so well it’s very very seldomly that a watch will then shoot through the roof for some reason or the other. And that’s really the biggest issue the reason, the reason the Yachtmaster 1 wasn’t as popular right out of the gate is because of the Platinum as well and it made the watch more expensive I don’t remember what it originally retailed at right? And people sort of shied away from they didn’t see the value in paying extra money for platinum on that watch, therefore in certain cases and then discounted people sold them at a discount with people bought them at a discount when to resell them it was to re sold at a further discount sort of like a slippery slope it’s very tough to get back up on that slope. Plus personally, I think that that particular Yachtmaster is not the best-looking Rolex out there which is also very important just not that good-looking of a watch most will say right? They did have a little bit of a rebound when they came out with that new one with the blue dial, you know that actually traded close to the list and nevertheless it still didn’t do wonders for them. The Yachtmaster 2 however is doing extremely well, the yellow gold. I guess the white gold is not doing so well, the 2-tone is doing a well and the stainless steel certainly is doing well, due to the fact that it’s a nice large
watch right? There’s not a whole lot of large Rolex’s out there and the Yachtmaster 2 certainly one of those that people tend to reach for when they
want a larger Rolex. Slippery slope is really what this is about, once you didn’t make an a name for yourself from the beginning and you have a history of discounting it’s very very tough to get out there and become that collectible. Hope that answers your question. Guys that’s it for me for today, I’m gonna take my crystal ball put it back on my credenza over there. As always comment your new questions below. Like, share, comment, subscribe to all those wonderful things that help my channel grow and I’ll see you guys next Tuesday.

21 comments on “Q&A #80 What Causes a Watch Market BUBBLE? + What’s the Best Time of Year to Buy Watches?

  1. Roman, I’m a long time, big time fan. Got a question. Is there any rhyme or reason why on some chronographs the 2, 4, 8, and 10 are cut off to create room for the subdials. Now that’s not the case on all chronographs. Who started this SOP? It doesn’t necessarily bother me as it is that way on some of my watches but I’m curious what your thoughts are. Keep up the great work. The show keeps getting better and better!

  2. Great vids roman, it's nice to see a watch channel that talks about so many brands… not just Rolex! Hey I'm in the market for a daydate 40. I like the 228235 rose gold with diamond indices and fluted bezel and yellow gold 228238 with Champaign dial with 18k roman numerals ,I LIKE BOTH WATCHES JUST THE SAME. Everyone is telling me rose gold is for women and in the sun, rose gold looks like stainless steel almost. What's your opinion? Can a man pull off rose gold or is it for women?

  3. I kno a guy PERSONALLY That got a batgirl from ben bridge rolex boutique in houston tx and this was his first purchase from them he was on list for about 45 days.

  4. Not Sharf's watch weekly. It's your first name that has the Zing. Roman's Empire of Watches. Or Roman the Watch God. or Roman the Watch World. (get it?) You see what I'm saying here.

  5. Also you really shouldn't refer to what's going on in Hong Kong as violence caused by "riots" That's the Chinese Communist Party propaganda line. They are pro-Democracy protesters fighting for the rights they were promised. Get it right, please.

  6. I definitely saw the ghost with a multibrand AD in a mall. It was a AP branded "stand" but not a boutique for sure.

  7. Hey Roman keep up the great work with your channel I have a question for you being that I know Ian gave you a crystal ball 🔮 now that Rolex has increased there prices as of Jan 2020 everyone is talking about the affect on the ss models but what about the affect on the pm pieces like the 116505 everose on the secondary market thanks 🙏 good luck 👍

  8. Hello, great channel, keep up the good work. I would like to ask you what is your opinion on Grand Seiko. In the forums and the internet watch community they are considered as a very high quality products for a low price and with better finish than Rolex for example. However the brand is not very popular and there is almost no chance to see someone wearing one.

  9. Do you realize Cloudflare is blocking your site in South Korea (without using a VPN)? As much as you do business in Asia, I'm not sure this is something you intended.

  10. I’ve noticed in nyc even stores like Tourneau have a huge stock of used or “never worn” Rolex’s. The one in midtown had a whole aisle or 3 full cases. Yet that same store had the new Rolex cases almost empty, seems strange they have so many unworn used watches but no new at retail for an AD. Surprised Rolex allows an AD to sell a current model unworn over retail.
    Funny you mentioned Rolex Yachtmaster, I bought an anniversary submariner in 2005, at that time no one wanted the green and it was not popular so I bought it below retail. Recently I sold it for almost 4 times what I paid for it, to make room for the aquanaut I really wanted to add and I really don’t wear my Rolex’s in nyc right now. Rolex watches seem to be too common here, every NYU student wears one, even my cleaning lady, hell the bartender at a restaurant I eat at daily for lunch wears a sub. It’s just funny the way Rolex over the years has dropped and skyrocketed in prices, fashion trends I guess?

  11. Do you think Popular watches never sustain their hype forever?

    Patek Aquanaut , Nautilus will become like Piaget or Vacheron Overseas?

    Richard Mille will eventually become like the Hublot, Frank Muller?

    How much longer will the Rolex craze last?

  12. Hi Roman; I think you are very experienced in hot and fast moving time pieces. What are the similarities and differences between Rolex sport ; Nautilus and Richard Mille ? Are the market price for ( Nautilus Rolex sport and Richard Mille ) real or just being artificially rigged up? Will the premium over retail be sustainable ?

  13. I deal in art, antiques and pre owned luxury brands…. I don't even own a luxury watch… I love to examine your strategy and perspective in dealing with a topsy turvy marketplace. It's very helpful in what I do…. Thanks Roman !

  14. Hey Roman!

    First of all thanks for all the wealth of knowledge thus far, thanks for making YouTube for watches what it is – this huge library of information.

    Knowing how you have a long history selling and re-selling APs, how do you think the recent increase in MSRP of some of APs' specific models will affect the secondary market of these pieces going forward? Here in Singapore one of the biggest increases is the 15450ST which went up 17.3%. Has AP (or any other major brand) made such a big increase overnight before? And if so, historically how did the secondary market on these pieces follow suit?

    Once again thanks for all the help and information you're giving us and I do hope to repay the favour by patronising Luxury Bazaar one day. Cheers!

  15. Hey Roman! 
    Great content as usual, keep going! What do you think of the Tudor / Rolex positioning. Do you think the latest Tudors are taking the place of the positioning that Rolex used to have (robust tool watches) while Rolex strives to moves more upmarket? Esp. when looking at a black bay vs. submariner.How do you expect that to evolve?

    Furthermore: What do you think of the Tudor Black Bay Harrods Edition, potential to be the new kermit?

    Cheers from Germany

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